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Reciprocal Tariffs: A Pattern Emerges
Reciprocal Tariffs: A Pattern Emerges

Executives, Decision-Makers, and Colleagues,

Today, the Japanese team is meeting with Trump to conduct reciprocal tariff negotiations.

It is his first face.

It will set the pattern to come. A lot of uncertainty would vanish. New ones will emerge.

My view of this pattern is:

1. He plans to have a win win situation for both countries:

balance and growth and fair play both ways. He knows there will be pain on both sides as adjustments are not easy to make.

2. The package he would seek:

  • Make exchange rate fair. Revalue it to a new level. Yen has already appreciated from 159 to 143 to USD. Need to move more? Perhaps another 10%.
  • Make investments in the US in selected industries. In case of Japan, Toyota and others to expand in the US pronto along with supplier network. Other companies and products will be singled out.
  • Work jointly to reduce costs. Compare marginal costs with China after stripping out their subsidies and unfair exchange states. Jointly we can out compete them.

3. Reciprocal Tariffs

  • There will be no general tariff on the nation. It would be product by product. Reciprocity, reciprocity!
  • Intent is to beat China and outcompete it in world markets.
  • Gaining market share in world markets with competitive products and services is what balanced trade would be. A new globalization process.

4. Exception for Japan

  • Japan and US need each other for political and military alliance. Chinese threat is at hand. Circling Australia, Philippines and almost near blockade of Taiwan.
  • So some confidential agreements will be made.

Let me state clearly. I can be wrong. I have studied Trump for a long period. He is a builder, builder of a new global system to compete against the CCP juggernaut.

""The pattern begins today. Old certainties will vanish. New ones will emerge.""
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